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Will luck determine the winner of the World Cricket Cup?

Thursday, April 19th, 2007

As I mentioned the other day the toss is an important factor in determining who wins. But only if you field first on winning the toss. If winning the toss is such a strong factor - is the rest of the game a WOMBAT?

In the Super Eight matches (as at 19 April)  where the winner has been the team that won the toss - that’s 12 times, on 10 occasions they’ve chosen to field first.

For the other two, New Zealand batted first and beat Bangladesh as expected (regardless of who batted first)  and the upset was Ireland choosing to bat first and beating Bangladesh.

So, as noted previously - for semifinals and the final, the team winning the toss puts themselves at great disadvantage if they bat first.

What odds that the winners of those three matches will be the teams that win the toss (and choose to field first)?

Finally, why did England choose to bat first against South Africa? They must have known the odds.